Institutional Asset Management News and Insights
Consumer Outlook and Inflation Projections in the US Economy
First of all, we look at what would shift a soft-landing in the US into a recession, the consumer remains pivotal in this debate, but the picture is mixed across major economies. The risk of a consumer contraction is most likely in Europe, UK and Canada. Japan also...
“Higher for longer”: A warning or the new reality?
The Federal Reserve Chairman has been relentless in recent weeks, banging the drum for “higher for longer” interest rate policy. This has begun to undermine the Treasury market despite generally supportive economic data including better Personal Consumption...
ANDPAPERS Q4 2023 | HIGHER FOR LONGER
Q3 has put the optimism that drove the rally in the first half of the year to the test, especially regarding the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would soon move to cut interest rates. Indeed, the resilience of the US economy seems to have led to a...
THESEUS, THE LABYRINTH AND THE MINOTAUR
Insurance strategic asset allocation, a tool to navigate the investment labyrinth Investment markets are a labyrinth We have explored some interesting themes in our journey through Greek mythology (multi-faceted risk, active vs passive for insurance, duration vs...
Are Central Banks finally approaching the end of the rate-hiking cycle?
Central Bank rhetoric remains hawkish, with policymakers determined not to repeat last year’s mistake of underestimating inflation. From their perspective, the ideal would be a mix of slower, but positive economic growth, avoiding the pitfalls of a deep recession,...
Is inflation finally trending lower, or is it likely to be sticky?
The US leads the downward trend, with headline inflation falling back to 4% Year on Year (from over 8% in Q4 2022) and set to drop further over the next few months. Core inflation had proved stickier, but even here there is encouraging news. Most economies are moving...
Is a recession likely, or are we merely facing a period of slower economic growth?
Global economic projections have been rising across the board in the past quarter. However, expectations at the start of the year were probably too bearish, meaning some of the re-rating is a natural adjustment. Nonetheless, the underlying growth momentum has...
ANDPAPERS Q3 2023 | ARE WE CLOSER TO AN INFLECTION POINT?
In the last 12 months, financial conditions have tightened to an unprecedented degree, including a rise in the Fed Funds rate from 1% to 5%. But the lack of damage to the financial system is surprising with the total sum of financial failures limited to just one large...
THE DEBRIEF | Q3 2023
We invite you to sit down with our Chief Investment Officer, Pau Morilla Giner, and Head of the Private Investment Office, Iain Tait, as they debrief on the last quarter and look ahead to potential market trends for Q3 2023. They examine the geo-political shifts,...
HEPHEASTUS FORGED A MAGNIFICENT ARMOUR FOR ACHILLES INSURERS NEED DURATION AND CONVEXITY
Strengthening your armour In previous instalments of our Greek mythology series, we explored the similarities between investment risk and the Lernaean multi-headed Hydra (see link). We also looked at the ancient Greek poem The Shepherd and The Sea and what that...
Note from the CIO 15.06.2023
UK government bonds have seen the largest selloff since October’s “mini budget” crisis, with 2-year gilts hitting a peak of 4.9% yesterday (highest since 2008). THIS IS NOT A REPEAT OF OCTOBER MOVES A big question is if this is a repeat to what we saw in October,...
London & Capital appoints Dayleen Van Zyl as Chief People Officer
London & Capital is delighted to announce the appointment of Dayleen Van Zyl as Chief People Officer. With her extensive experience and expertise in people management and culture development, Dayleen brings a new dimension to the firm's leadership team. Dayleen...